It amazes me how many still bet bad value favourites. Especially those with top jockeys on board and who plunge their cash on them for that very reason.
That’s not to say there is never any value on such selections, but as sure as night follows day that value will be quickly snapped up early doors by the shrewdies.
Ruby is onboard a red hot favourite at 2/1 and is considered value at that price. The shrewdies will lump on and drive it down to 6/4 fav. Now the professionals who consistently get 2/1 will have captured their profit margin and by days end will make a profit as a result of getting the early 2/1. Those punters who piggy back on the weight of this money and who take prices below 2/1 will lose long term. In fact it’s the quickest way to the poor house!
This is especially so when the top jockeys have already notched up a double on the racecard and are on for the treble. The third horse will be hammered by the big bookies at the racecourse to reduce their off course liabilities. Simply because every week thousands of punters will back the top jockeys in every race of the day in doubles and trebles.
A case in point was ‘Annie Power’ at Cheltenhem 2015 when Ruby already had two winners on the day and was on for the treble. The price of Annie Power was driven down to 4/9 Fav.
Now does that weight of money give Annie Power a better chance of winning.? Of course not. This is what I call ‘false market money’ that does not represent a greater chance of the horse winning formwise. It’s just money to offset liabilities and also from punters ghosting the early big money in the hope of getting a winner at any cost in order to get that ‘feel good’ factor of winning.
So try this experiment when you hear that a top jockey is on for the treble at any course. Simply lay the next selection (So long as it’s favourite). You can then be sure of laying a selection that is what I call ‘Overbet’ and is horrifically bad value and as such it’s a layers paradise.
Here are the high profile jockeys I would use on the Flat:
Here are the high profile jockeys I would use on the Jumps:
Ruby Walsh (Mainly rides in Ireland except big UK meetings)
Then wait until they have a double on any race day and Lay their 3rd mount if it’s favourite. Give it a try as it happens more often than you think.
Testing Pod Updates….
Against The Double (Lay Strategy):
As you may have read on my Betting Doctor Testing Pod we have started a new combo trial on Area (3) of the Pod.
Here we will be continuing to give selections daily for the well established Against The Double (ATD) Horse Racing Lay strategy that has made a profit on the testing Pod for the past 4 months.
In an attempt to improve profits further in a low risk way we have coupled it with another low risk strategy that has been operated by the co author of Quick On The Draw (Les Robson) for many years successfully.
The aim is to hit 8 points and then quit for the month and operate the compounding table shown in Testing Pod Area (1) of the football trial.
This could be interesting. Check in daily here:
It’s also good to see Quick On The Draw, that was officially launched late March, is proving it can deliver on the summer leagues and is on fire at the moment despite a tricky start to June.
Hopefully we can add another low risk strategy from the combo trial above so make sure you bookmark it!
That’s all for now and see you next week!