In this newsletter:
- Banish those ‘New service’ curse myths
- Fruit Machines – Can we learn from them?
Welcome to the first of my Betting Doctor weekly posts.
My mission is simple – Profit!
Before we begin this exciting journey into profit, I will first cover a few fundamental areas that are crucial to firmly underpin the foundations for success whether betting or trading.
I will be looking at a whole host of topics including; profitable betting angles, new & exciting project developments, stories from real pro gamblers and looking at areas to enhance your betting/trading with some unconventional thinking.
The purpose of which is to develop a solid mindset that will see you get ahead fast and more importantly stay ahead with your betting.
Without further ado let’s start by clearing up a few myths that do nothing more than cloud our judgement that leaves many on the betting merry go round.
New Service Curse Myths?
One of the biggest bands of the 70’s ‘The Police’ summed it up well with the following chorus to their hit record:-
I can’t, I can’t, I can’t stand losing, I can’t, I can’t, I can’t stand losing…
No I haven’t lost my marbles and you can take a nostalgic look back and listen to the words of this betting relevant record here.
My point is, if you really want to win and I mean ‘really’ want to win money from your betting then you have to cope with losing pure and simple.
A comment I hear very often is; “Every time I join a new service or follow a system I always seem to hit a losing streak – I must be cursed!” Well let’s look at this a little deeper.
Let’s say you join a highly profitable & proven service with a 30% strike rate. Based on that win percentage you’d expect ‘30’ winners per ‘100’ bets placed on average. Therefore from a pure mathematical view point you are going to have more losers than winners and that’s a fact that can’t be argued with!
Unless you have lady luck on your side the chances of you joining ‘on’ or ‘just’ before an upward trend are far less than joining with a spell of losers. So the maths dictate you will join and intercept during a spell of losers more often than not I’m afraid.
So banish those ‘I must be cursed or run over a black cat’ thoughts immediately as they only serve to re-enforce the wrong mental approach from the outset. This is not good for the perseverance needed to make money from betting.
It’s clearly nothing to do with luck or curses or any of that nonsense it’s just pure mathematics in action and that MUST be accepted.
We all like to hit the ground running when joining a new service or following a system but please bare the above in mind before coming to knee jerk conclusions based on very short term results. You will then realise we are playing a numbers game here and not looking for mystic meg to be on our side.
Fruit Machines – Programmed by Humans for Humans…
Love or hate them they are everywhere these days, Bookies, Pubs, Clubs, Chips shops etc. You can see why when the average profit per unit is somewhere in the region of £4,000 per annum from premises with only medium footfall – Ker Ching! Bookmakers can make up to £40,000 per annum from each Fixed Odds Betting Terminal (FOBT) so you can see these are massive cash cows with no staff to pay!
We can use Fruit machines and how they are programmed to help us with our betting in relation to what ‘NOT’ to do in order to arrive at a profit.
Please don’t worry I’m not advocating we play Fruit Machines to earn our living – far from it!
All Fruit machines are required by law to state the payback percentage to players on the front of the machine (usually close to where you insert your coin). This can range from 70%-80%, meaning for every £1 you put in you will get at least 70p-80p back on average. This of course is over the long term and not necessarily when you intercept and play.
The big question here is; in knowing the machines are there to empty your pockets the longer you play why do people play them?
More importantly why are players lured in by the many features offered?
One evening when I was tired of watching some paint dry I read a few chapters of ‘Sociology for Dummies’ that my nephew was reading as part of his Business degree.
The author ‘Jay Gabler’ touches on Fruit Machine or slots as the yanks call them and states;
“Millions of people play them worldwide despite the fact they know they are going to lose but they don’t see it that way – they play to win”.
He goes on;
“ People are sometimes irrational in ways like this – but they are also predictably irrational, and fruit machines have been programmed around this behaviour in offering short term and instant rewards. People favour short term rewards over long terms rewards”.
Example: What would you do here with this aptly named Fruit Machine?
I would wager the majority here would HOLD the two ‘7’s’ in the hope of the third ‘7’ kindly dropping in – Right?
The truth is this never happens! However, if you do hold the two 7’s you won’t get 3 in line on the first attempt, but if offered a further two holds then do hold the Two ‘7’s’ as after the 3rd hold they will drop in line.
If you have a spare few pounds while waiting for mates down the local give it a try – it really does work!
The truth is though you rarely get the offer of a second & third hold anyway?
The question that needs to be asked is; why would you hold the ‘2’ obvious symbols anyway when at the back of your mind you know they are programmed to win money off you?
You see by taking the most obvious path you are letting the machine dictate the way you play and thus allowing it to take your cash faster than a Twix at a weight watchers meeting. Remember they have been programmed by humans for humans and to work on our most obvious thought patterns by tempting you to take the ‘bait’ and entrapping you with hypnotic flashing features and sounds.
If you play fruit machines for fun with the odd pound or two then try doing the opposite of what the machine expects you to do?. Now I’m not saying this will make you win instantly, but one things for sure, if you play the way the machine wants you to play by taking its most obvious holds & features then I’m 100% sure you will lose money the longer you play!
What Do We Take From All This?
Well let’s transfer the above ‘Programmed by Humans for Humans’ Philosophy to bookies. Bookies are there to take your money and NOT to offer you a living. So whatever the Bookies heavily promote in terms of offers no matter how tempting simply avoid or do the opposite. Unless the offer can be engineered into a risk free bet using the exchanges of course.
Bookies continually have ‘enticer offers’ or bait as I like to call them displayed in their window frontage such as:
“Back Tottenham to win 2-0 and Eriksen to score first and get £200 for a £10 stake!”.
Again I repeat, in knowing Bookies are there to take your money why on earth would you take this offer, is it because they want to make you rich?
It’s a simple hook & line technique to tempt you to take the ‘bait’ much like the way Fruit machine have been programmed.
Another example is when you see Bookies offering enhanced odds for the 1-1 draw. Avoid these like the plague, in fact, I know someone who lays heavily advertised bookie offers and does pretty well! It must be said however he does have a large Betfair balance to cover liabilities and doesn’t lay above 6.0. This is just to illustrate that going against the grain can and does work for some. On the flip side falling for bookie offers WON’T – full stop!
Focus your betting strategies on doing the very opposite to what those who want to ‘take’ your money are enticing you to do.
Why not start by using the two types of bet the bookies fear most? That is the ‘straight win single’ and ‘each-way’ bet. Bookies detest these bets as they have the slimmest profit margin in comparison to all others.
Then and only then are you on the road to getting the edge from your betting.
Never stake more in one single bet than 50 x the cost of an average pair of shoes. Intrigued – you will be!
From next I’m hoping to report on a Horse Racing service that’s been banking some impressive figures from around 3 bets per day. +390.94 in 13 months to be exact to flat level stakes. These are very decent figures in this industry…. Can it continue? I think so as I’ve been monitoring for too long now for it to be a fluke. More info next week!
Want a prescription?
Having a problem or need advice? e.g staking, what products work best or one that suits you and your timeframe, then email the Betting Doctor at the usual address.