First off, the good news is the Carry On films are about to make a comeback with two new films being commissioned in some shape or fashion. Word has it they are going to be of the saucy nature – ooooh matron!
My favourite has to be Carry on Cruising when the crew made a birthday cake for Captain Sid James with everything in it from raw spaghetti to Bombay duck… lovely!
Such a shame they never had one entitled Carry On Betting. You could have Sid James as the avid pro gambler who when he hit a bad patch would as the name suggest just carry on betting… although now I think of it, he did have a budge in Carry On At Your Convenience who could pick winners. Now that’s a proper pet!
This cinematic interlude brings me back quite neatly to whether you should carry on betting when you hit a bad patch with your chosen method or strategy…
Test, test and test again
Before you decide to start with a strategy or follow a service, the only way to work out whether it has legs or not is to test, test, and then do more testing.
This can be an exhaustive process believe me. I’ve often gone as far as 1,000+ selections in testing with some methods and all has been going well and then BANG! I hit prolonged downturn with very little signs of recovery.
Begs the question – were the first 1,000 selections just a lengthy sample of ‘good luck’ interception? Who knows, my guess is that they were.
The true test comes after the next 1,000 bets. If after a minimum of 2,000 selections it remains in profit with average strike rates being consistent, then you can be more than sure you’re on the right path. More importantly, you may have hit on something with longevity.
Having established your method passes the 2,000 bet mark successfully, the next question to ponder is: do the ups and downs of the method suit you?
In other words, did the ups and downs of the Win/Lose patterns give you heart palpations? If yes, then it may be best left alone as the main mission with gambling is to develop a strategy with a Win/Lose cycle comfortable enough to enable you to carry on betting. Believe me this is one key point that determines success or failure, full stop!
This not only applies to your own methods but also to those systems or services that you are currently using or considering using in the future.
It’s not all about how profitable the method or service is but the level of risk in order to obtain these predicted profits. Personally, I like small and frequent profits that I can ‘upscale’ frequently as my bank builds, rather than the whipsawing of big profit blips and long and protracted downturns.
Everyone is different, but I would wager very few have the mental discipline and risk appetite to take on prolonged losing runs.
So given that your strategy has proved itself over at least 2,000 data samples, below is a short gout point checklist in testing out whether the method/service will suit you long term:
- Does it make sufficient gains frequently enough to keep your interests alive?
- Can the method fit in with your available timeframe and lifestyle consistently?
- Can you raise a sufficient bankroll to cover drawdowns? (This is always overlooked)
- Does the method operate in a market with plenty of liquidity to give longevity?
Let’s look at the above points more closely
1) Does it make sufficient gains in real time?
Make sure you haven’t shaped a method of rules going backwards in order to come out the other end in profit (otherwise known as ‘backtesting’).
It is fine to have a set of rigid rules and then backtest to see if would make profits. This is very different to ‘changing’ the rules to fit the past results in order to come out on top.
Better still to evaluate in ‘real time’ betting scenarios. Although it may take longer this will be far more accurate of what the future has in store for you if followed from thereon.
With the benefit of hindsight, it is far easier to create a profitable system that will work on historical data than one that’ll work in the future (like “never bet on favourites on All Weather racing in January”, or taking out races with ten less runners in February and so on). This is all convenient backtesting and very misleading.
2) Do you have enough spare time to follow it consistently?
There’s no good developing a method that works around awkward hours that you only use intermittently. Therefore find an approach that will see you using it at your convenience. If you work 9 to 5, then maybe a Football Method would work well considering most high-liquidity games are played in the evenings during the week, and day and evenings at weekends. Be realistic about the time you can spare.
3) Do you have enough funds to use through drawdowns?
Profits don’t move in straight lines upwards unless you’re on the Risk Free Bonus bandwagon, so most of us need a sufficient bankroll.
This is often overlooked, however – no doubt you have heard this a million times before – and this is another major reason why most fail. If you don’t have enough money in reserve to start with then just lower your stakes. A ‘100’ point bank at Betfair’s minimum stake will see you only needing a £200 reserve, which I’m sure is possible for most starting out.
4) Is there enough money in the market of your choice to earn long term profits unhindered?
Don’t rely on traditional bookmakers to make long term profits as that won’t have longevity. You therefore need to look at Betfair as your profit well, preferably at markets with plenty of liquidity where prices are stable.
Finally, if you are in the process of developing your own method and have reached a ‘dead end’ or are unsure of appropriate staking methods, then drop me a line.
Sometimes you can get so bogged down in charts and analysis you can’t see the wood for the trees, and fresh input or an article can relight your fire and help you jump that final hurdle. Either that, or take a break and come back to it later.