Have you ever had days when everything just seems to go right?
Whether it’s betting or otherwise? Then, the next day it all goes pear shaped and yet you have done nothing particularly differently.
It’s a strange one and very frustrating especially in betting/trading.
In my days of visiting betting shops, mainly Corals and Hills I always noticed that if I started the day well then it seemed to continue in the same vein. On the flip side, if I had a few losers then I was left chasing my tail for the rest of the day (or at least until my pockets were empty).
More often than not I found that I was usually well up after the first few races but if I continued then I would find it more and more difficult to stay ahead or recover any lost stakes from a bad start to the day.
When things like this happen I always look to see if there is a more scientific reason why this happens rather than putting it down to just pot luck.
Well on closer inspection the early races were Non-Handicaps and as my betting was predominately on favourites at certain courses where the ‘Jolly’ had a good historical record, then the chances of having a winner early on were higher.
So why was my success rate better on these earlier races? Well if you look at the daily racecards you will see the first races on each card are Non Handicaps. Stats wise these are more reliable in terms of the favourite winning albeit at shorter prices than favourites in handicaps.
So having collected and profited on these early races it was time to impose discipline rather than trying to ‘Play up’ my early winnings on the later scheduled handicaps where finding winners can be notoriously difficult if it’s not your area of speciality hence the generally bigger prices on offer…
Don’t get me wrong, there are many that make good money from handicaps but those that do specialise in this area and can find well weighted horses or are privy to certain info – nudge nudge wink wink!
Eg. Some follow handicap horses that re-appear quickly after a previous win and thus would avoid a penalty. The great sprinter ‘Glencroft’ was a horse that comes to note many years ago who followed this path along with a few others since.
For me personally I avoid Handicaps but each to their own as they say.
I will touch on both of these areas more in future newsletters to see if we can seek out any potential routes to profit by applying a simple set of filters.
Now may be a good time to check for market movers for Cheltenham. However with the impending cold snap it may be wise to stake with caution or even wait for the day if you can because God knows how the ground is going to turn out, or when this cold snap ends.