Well one of our 4 advised bets was a non runner and we got one placed at an advised 14/1 from our other 3 that went to post for the Betvictor Gold Cup won by Splash Of Ginge at 25/1.
As I mentioned it’s only prudent to exercise caution so early on in the jump season and wait for the December and early January meetings before taking matters seriously and where we can take a closer look at some good bets.
Have You Got Bouncebackability?….
In one of my past articles I touched on ‘Bouncebackabilty’ a phrase coined by ex-crystal place manager Ian Dowie commenting on his sides resilience in coming back to win 3-2 after being 2-0 down.
Bouncebackability can almost certainly be applied to gambling and trading for sure.
Let’s look at the test currently being undertaken on My Testing Area 3. It’s the Back Both Teams To Score (BTTS) and Under 2.5 Goals trial.
Now this trial is well in profit since inception for all those who decided to play with small stakes or monitored the free daily selections.
Being a testing pod I always say to play with small stakes for that very reason ‘it’s a testing pod’. However I do notice after a losing day there is a reduction in readership for the next days selections?
Now for me this is where those trying to make gambling/trading pay fall down. A couple of losing days and they lose interest. If anything, surely it would be a MUST to make sure you back the next day’s selections after a losing day?
This is especially so when following a trial such as the BTTS (Back Both Teams To score) as it’s showing a pattern of long winning runs and short losing runs. Therefore after a few losers a winner is due based on historical evidence. Just take a look at last weeks and previous results to see evidence of this.
Same goes for the Quick On The Draw test that was on Testing Pod Area(2) for 5 months. Those who have stuck with it would have profited and continue to do so since its official launch and all from a simple yet effective system that aims for just 1pt profit everyday in a risk controlled manner.
Lets say we can develop a staking algorithm for the above type of systems then ideally it would advise lower stakes when the winning percentage is running above its empirical average, and higher stakes for when the strike rate is running below it empirical average. Why? Well because any system has to return at some point to near its long term average and that would mean after a long winning run losers will surely become due. The reverse is also true, so it would only make sense to lower stakes after abnormally long losing runs, and likewise go in with higher stakes after lengthy losing runs.
The above is only true if you’ve witnessed for yourself the Win/lose pattern of the method you begin following, hence why I say with tests such as the BTTS it makes sense to keep watching or bet with small stakes if that’s your wish even after losing days as the winners become closer after 2 losing days based on historical evidence. Of course the past does not predict the future but it can be a very good guide and as such we have to use it the best we can.
In this instance that would mean with the longest losing run so far for the BTTS test being just ‘2’ losing days the chances of a winning day happening shortly after are very high. It’s all about reducing risk and trying to ‘sync in’ with these patterns as much as possible with our staking.
As I say the BTTS and Under 2.5 Goals are currently in test mode so best to play very small or keep watching.
The important point to take from all of this is never give up just because ‘shock horror’ we happen to have a couple of losing days!
This brings me on nicely as to how we are doing with both of the above tests?
Testing Pod Update:
Close to 15pts for BTTS so far in the test and -1.59 for the new Under 2.5 Goals test. The Under 2.5 Goals test may need tweaking or looked at again but the BTTS continues to plough on.
Check in daily to see the selections from this link below: