Hope you read my Grand National meeting shortlist last week using a philosophy I give in my Quick-fire Betting Profits Course? Here’s a reminder of the ones I suggest you add to your notebook along with results;
- Brain Power – Lost
- Wonderful Charm – Lost
- Balnaslow – WON 11/2 Betfair SP: +7.76
- We Have A Dream – WON 2/1 Betfair SP: +3.0
- Apples Shakira – Lost (2nd)
- On the Blind Side – Lost
So a nice +4.76pts profit from such a simple angle, more if you managed a better price on Balnaslow. Stay tuned for more of these throughout the year.
No luck on the National though, then again not a betting race to be taken seriously but a great performance by Tiger Roll.
Oppose the Experts and make Money….
When I listen to some ‘so called’ experts and the predictions they tout I sometimes say to myself – how on earth do they get and keep their pundit jobs? Some of them couldn’t tip pee out of a shoe even if the instructions were written on the heel!
Take football for example, after Aston Villa thrashed top team Wolves 4-1 a few weeks back a few pundits made a really brave prediction that Villa will go on from this and could claim second spot after demolishing the top side. Yawn Yawn I thought to myself, not really an original or brave statement was it? The ability to think outside the box so sadly missing, or maybe they want to keep their jobs by playing it safe and stating the blinking obvious?
To me though that was not so obvious, and those of you who are members of my Quick-fire betting course will of course know what I would have predicted for both Wolves and Villa on the following match?
Villa players would have their heads way up in the air after their recent scalp and as such their focus maybe skewed for the next match at home to QPR. So while all and sundry were lumping on Villa at 4/9 I confidently backed QPR at a tasty 9/2 despite the wave of expert opinion going in the other direction.
What the experts forgot to evaluate in their loose assessment was ‘players mentality’ or should I say human mentality. In that, after the massive euphoria of taking a big scalp what follows is an enormous ‘come down’, and in my opinion there is no better chance of beating a team than when they are on the come down.
Not everyone agrees with this philosophy, not least the experts but who cares? Making betting profits is all about following the least treaded path in order to obtain a bit of value.
The result? My money was never in danger with a 3-1 win to QPR and they were 3-0 up by half time!
In fact, let’s look at the results from Villa’s following ‘3’ games after beating Wolves;
Aston Villa 1 QPR 3
Bolton 1 Aston Villa 0
Hull City 0 Aston Villa 0
With results like these some would argue thrashing top team Wolves was the worst thing they could have done for their promotion push?
I also backed Wolves to ‘bounce back’ from their ‘out of character’ thrashing at home to Reading. Ok so I won’t get rich on the odds on offer but these type of bets have a very high strike rate. i.e backing teams to bounce back when they have an ‘out of character’ thrashing.
Now let’s look at Wolves next ‘3’ matches after being thrashed;
Wolves 3 Reading 0
Wolves 3 Burton 1
Middlesbrough 1 Wolves 2
Now that is some bounce back even though 2 out of 3 were not the strongest opposition.
Some Quick-fire members are making a packet from the full strategy of the above angle and it really is one of my favourites.
So next time you listen to experts, think about opposing them, not just for the sake of it, but do a little research to see if any value can be had from backing against them by using the above philosophy. You may be surprised by the odds and winning runs you experience!
Until next week!