First a quick note about the world cup.
Not exactly going to form is it? Germany losing to Mexico, Brazil drawing to the Swiss and to begin it all Iran beating Morocco! Not major shocks as some would make out but upsets nonetheless.
Maybe these countries are improving all the time rather than the big nations becoming less capable? If you have read ‘Why England Always Lose’ by Stefan Szymanski & Simon Kuper you will know where I am coming from.
Back to my thoughts on the likely winner
Well I can’t see Germany winning and would confidently put a line through them at this stage as they don’t look their ‘solid’ self, and I would do the same with Brazil.
As for England’s chances… well you don’t win major tournaments by missing the chances they had against Tunisia. They did however get the job done but against better opposition they may not get as many second chances. There’s very little room for error at this level so will swerve England’s chances.
Yes it was the first match for all the above but the key indicators don’t look favourable if they are to take the title.
My early trading advices are all in good shape at the time of writing (Russia; Portugal, Belgium & Japan), so we should be able to cash-out for some risk free profit very soon, especially if they don’t meet the big guns at the knockout stages.
Why are many tipsters losing?….
It appears from several emails that many horse racing tipsters are going through a pretty lean period of late.
Now I wouldn’t usually comment on this as I know fully well how hard this game is with many tipsters working very hard on behalf of their clients. However it’s the amount of emails I’ve received on this issue that has prompted me to look as to possible reasons why?
One reader said “my usual tipster that has delivered profits for many years seems to be on a never ending downward spiral of late, have you any idea as to reasons why?”. And I’ve had many of these of the same ilk and all outlining different tipsters.
The obvious reason is they all could be going through a simple but ‘above the norm’ drawdown as you would normally expect with any form of betting over the course of the years.
Having said that, could there be more to this than meets the eye?
Could it be that prices in general are becoming tighter with bigger overrounds to the bookies? Put simply very little value in the market?
Or are betting bots that are now prevalent snapping up all the value on the exchanges and thus driving down prices. This could very well be the case especially if the winning strike rate of each tipster is still holding around the same average.
I really don’t know, but I do know from my own observations and betting that many highly fancied selections over the past few months are just not running to form. My initial thought was that was just me picking the wrong ones, but judging by my inbox it appears not.
Out and out favourite backers also have been experiencing a lower than expected strike rate, but I am fully confident the average 34-35% strike rate will be delivered by years end as it always does.
So what’s going on then? It’s doubtful these tipsters are going through a personal crisis that has affected their judgement, as it would be a big coincidence if all the ones highlighted by my readers have hit a personal crisis at the very same time?
My guess – it’s a simple matter of form horses not performing as they should, only this has gone on for longer than expected. A period that has produced a new low in drawdown terms way past the usual average. This can and does happen and losing run records can be broken with new figures being established.
The important point to remember is if you have faith in your previously profitable service stay with them as you can be sure there is an enormous correction in strike rate just around the corner.
What’s more a correction that could well establish a new record, only this time a new longest ‘winning run’ record and/or highest monthly profit recorded.
It’s a classic example of why we have to have betting banks in place which provide working capital to work your way through such events.
On the other hand, if following a tipster or form study is not your cup of rosy lee then you could think about following the cold hard numbers rather the form to profit.
Many are doing just that and I have 30+ such strategies in my exciting Quick-Fire Betting course. I had this email a few weeks ago from Steve who likes to follow methodical priced based approaches like with my Cracking greyhound strategy;
Subject: Cracking Greyhounds feedback
To: “Andrew David” <[email protected]>
Date: Thursday, 24 May, 2018, 9:31
Just a quick (fire) note on the ‘Cracking Greyhounds’ bonus strategy. I thought I’d give it a go at smallish stakes at the beginning of the month.
So far, all positive. In fact, I feel you may have under-played the success of this method!I personally set my lay stake at £10, followed by a back stake of £6. This means I get (roughly) even profit if the dog doesn’t finish second.
Greyhound racing being a lot more unpredictable than horses or football, I find it’s similar to rolling a dice. I’m bagging £4-5 wins around 90% of the time.When a dog does finish second, I lose £12-16.
Still, I’m averaging £40-70 profits daily so far in May. Not too shabby for a bonus strategy! It’s a nice one to use late morning, before any horse racing or football has started.
Might be worth a mention on the next webinar 🙂
It’s all about what you prefer, and glad to say now more than ever there is a wealth of information and services out there to suit all types of punter and many that deserve credit for their work. The key is to be consistent in approach and sack the short-term mentality and the profits will follow.