Don’t get me wrong, Saturday is my favourite day of the week socially, with Thursday a close second.
I really don’t do Fridays or Mondays, especially bank holiday Mondays, which are my least favourite day ever! Don’t ask me why; they just are!
Although Saturday may be my favourite day socially, looking at my own betting records it makes for very different reading. Even some methods I’ve been testing recently would be better served by leaving out Saturday altogether
Why? I’m sure on deeper analysis, this cannot be put down to just a series of pure bad luck. I believe there’s more to these poor Saturdays than meets the eye.
My mission therefore was to find reasoning behind such occurrences, rather than just putting them down to pure good or bad luck, which I don’t buy into.
Here’s my take on it…
Saturdays and bank holidays are by far the busiest days in the racing calendar, and as such, due to the sheer amount of races on offer, the quality can be very thin on the ground outside the top races.
Thus leading many to evaluate races they would otherwise leave alone.
My records show when breaking down my Saturday betting that the most success derives from the highest-grade races of the day, both on the Flat and National Hunt. Stepping outside the top 3 highest-grade races (usually the top 3 in highest-prize-money races) and my strike rate and profits take a dip.
The vast amount of races offered on Saturday and bank holidays are there for one reason and one reason only: to satisfy the bookmakers’ hunger to feed race after race to the punter on what are the biggest betting days of the racing calendar.
Days when the casual punter has his/her weekly punt or fun accumulator, using funds from their disposable income.
Some bank holidays can have as many as 12 meetings in what are known as ‘Bookie Bonanza days’. Likewise are Saturdays in the summer, when you have plenty of day and evening action, as the evenings stay lighter later.
In fairness, the racecourses too are partly responsible in trying to attract the casual punter, or those just looking for a day out. Who can blame them? After all, they are in business to make money.
For the punter though, bank holidays and congested Saturdays, especially in the summer, are a minefield.
Most of the top jockeys and quality horses are centred around the top 2 meetings, which leaves the rest very low-grade affairs with form hard to evaluate.
If you listen to the way some betting shop commentators talk up these low-class All Weather races, you would they were graded races at Epsom – don’t be fooled!
In dissecting my Saturday betting, I found if I left out the selections outside the top 3 graded races, it would have improved my returns by around 9%!
This figure is not to be sniffed at for implementing such a simple extra filter.
Stepping outside the top 3, in my opinion, is just fool’s gold, where what may seem like value isn’t, as form lines cannot be taken strictly on their merits.
Most weekdays there is far less quality racing around where the mind is concentrated on one or two principle races, and where we then look for the strongest bets.
That’s just my take on it and I would be very interested to hear your views and experiences on Saturday and bank holiday betting.
In short, do you find on these days what starts out to be a day full of optimism turns out to be a damp squib!?
It may well pay to analyse your own betting records to see what leaving out Saturday betting would do to your annual returns.
If you don’t keep records, then from memory have you walked away a happy bunny?
At the very least it’s worth an experiment to see how your profit/loss account is affected once you take out the low grade races. I wager you may be surprised!
Tennis – More fiddles than an orchestra?
Match rigging in tennis – surely not, he said sarcastically! When I was younger I used to pretend to play the guitar using a tennis racket, but never used it to play the fiddle!
No doubt you will have heard in the news of the latest match rigging allegations against certain tennis players? (Allegedly.)
The truth as I see it is, you are going to get odd results in all betting markets: that’s just the nature of the beast, I’m afraid.
Whether it be a player or team performing below par, or something more sinister going on, these stories are going to continue for as long as the sport is in existence.
We as punters have to account for this in any system or method we deploy. In other words, factor in plenty of room for error to account for such anomalies, so it does not matter to our long-term results.
Now if match rigging was prevalent, then we would be in trouble if we use bare form to arrive at our selections.
However, as match rigging is most certainly the exception and not the norm, a good system or strategy should easily accommodate for such irregularities happening from time to time.
In forthcoming newsletters I will look at a few tennis strategies that give plenty of coverage on most of the outcomes in a tennis match, where even if there is something untoward going on, it just wont matter!
Football Advisor – Week 7 Profit/Loss…
A better week last week with +11.38 points profit to reduce the overall trial deficit. Still hoping for one of the accas to come in!
Start your seven-day free trial here.
Tuesday 12th Janaury
2 Pt Bets
Lay 0v0 Half Time Score at 2.90 (To Win 2 Pts) (Newcastle – Man Utd) – Won +2.0
1 Pt Bets
Newcastle +0.5 at 2.1 – Won +1.10
Real Betis +1.5 at 1.88 – Lost -1.00
0.5 Pt Bets
Newcastle win at 4.80 – Lost -0.50
Real Betis win at 9.5 – Lost -0.50
Wednesday 13th January
3 Pt Bets
Sunderland +0.5 at 2.10 – Won +3.30
2 Pt Bets
Stoke win at 2.00 – Won +2.00
1.5 Pt Bets
Sunderland win at 5.50 – Won +6.75
1 Pt Bets
Chelsea Win To Nil at 2.05 – Lost -1.00
Man City Win HT / FT at 2.20 – Lost -1.00
Draw at 3.50 (Liverpool–Arsenal) – Won +2.50
0.5 Pt Bets
Sunderland -1.5 at 14 – Won +7.00
Accumulators
0.5 pt Sunderland (5.5), Stoke (2.0), Chelsea (1.36), Southampton (1.91), Man City (1.44) at 41.15 – Lost -0.50
1 pt Sunderland (5.5), Stoke (2.0), Chelsea (1.36) at 14.96 – Lost -1.00
0.50 Pt Sunderland (5.5), AC Milan (1.44), Man City (1.53), Chelsea (1.44), Barcelona (1.33) at 21.94 – Lost 0.50
1.5 pts AC Milan (1.44), Man City (1.53), Chelsea (1.44), Barcelona (1.33) at 4.22 – Lost -1.50
Saturday 16th January
2 Pt Bets
Man City -1.5 at 2.05 – Won +2.10
Inter win at 2.05 – Lost -2.00
Middlesbrough win at 1.95 – Lost -2.00
1.5 Pt Bets
QPR win at 2.70 – Won +2.55
1 Pt Bets
Sunderland +1.25 at 2.08 – Lost -1.00
Defoe at 4.5 – Lost -1.00
Everton +0.5 at 2.08 – Won +1.08
Inter -1.5 at 3.70 – Lost -1.00
Newcastle win at 2.50 – Won +1.50
Aston Villa win at 3.50 – Lost -1.00
BTTS–Yes and Middlesbrough win at 4.50 – Lost -1.00
Blackburn win at 2.40 – Lost -1.00
Nottingham Forest -1 at 2.40 – Won +1.40
QPR -1.5 at 5.75 – Won +4.75
0.5 Pt Bets
Sunderland win at 10 – Lost -0.50
Sunderland Win To Nil at 15 – Lost -0.50
BTTS – Yes and Leicester Win at 4.7 – Lost -0.50
BTTS – Yes and Aston Villa Win at 7.0 – Lost -0.50
Newcastle -1.5 at 5.25 – Lost -0.50
Accumulators
1 pt Inter (2.10), Boro (1.95), Man City (1.40) at 5.73 – Lost -1.00
Sunday 17th January
3 Pt Bets
Roma -1.5 at 2.05 – Lost -3.00
Valencia win at 1.57 – Lost -3.00
2 Pt Bets
Arsenal win at 1.95 – Lost -2.00
1.5 Pt Bets
Ajax win at 1.67 – Won +1.00
Valencia -1.25 at 2.25 – Lost -1.50
1 Pt Bets
Arsenal -1.5 at 3.75 – Lost -1.00
Marseille win at 2.50 – Won +1.50
0.5 Pt Bets
Draw at 3.30 – Lost -0.50
Accumulators
1pt Roma -1 (1.52), Valencia (1.55), Arsenal (2.00), Besiktas (1.22) at 5.75 – Lost -1.00
3pts Roma -1 (1.52), Valencia (1.55), Besiktas (1.22) at 2.91 – Lost -3.00
Monday 18th January
I really don’t do Fridays or Mondays, especially bank holiday Mondays, which are my least favourite day ever! Don’t ask me why; they just are!
Although Saturday may be my favourite day socially, looking at my own betting records it makes for very different reading. Even some methods I’ve been testing recently would be better served by leaving out Saturday altogether
Why? I’m sure on deeper analysis, this cannot be put down to just a series of pure bad luck. I believe there’s more to these poor Saturdays than meets the eye.
My mission therefore was to find reasoning behind such occurrences, rather than just putting them down to pure good or bad luck, which I don’t buy into.
Here’s my take on it…
Saturdays and bank holidays are by far the busiest days in the racing calendar, and as such, due to the sheer amount of races on offer, the quality can be very thin on the ground outside the top races.
Thus leading many to evaluate races they would otherwise leave alone.
My records show when breaking down my Saturday betting that the most success derives from the highest-grade races of the day, both on the Flat and National Hunt. Stepping outside the top 3 highest-grade races (usually the top 3 in highest-prize-money races) and my strike rate and profits take a dip.
The vast amount of races offered on Saturday and bank holidays are there for one reason and one reason only: to satisfy the bookmakers’ hunger to feed race after race to the punter on what are the biggest betting days of the racing calendar.
Days when the casual punter has his/her weekly punt or fun accumulator, using funds from their disposable income.
Some bank holidays can have as many as 12 meetings in what are known as ‘Bookie Bonanza days’. Likewise are Saturdays in the summer, when you have plenty of day and evening action, as the evenings stay lighter later.
In fairness, the racecourses too are partly responsible in trying to attract the casual punter, or those just looking for a day out. Who can blame them? After all, they are in business to make money.
For the punter though, bank holidays and congested Saturdays, especially in the summer, are a minefield.
Most of the top jockeys and quality horses are centred around the top 2 meetings, which leaves the rest very low-grade affairs with form hard to evaluate.
If you listen to the way some betting shop commentators talk up these low-class All Weather races, you would they were graded races at Epsom – don’t be fooled!
In dissecting my Saturday betting, I found if I left out the selections outside the top 3 graded races, it would have improved my returns by around 9%!
This figure is not to be sniffed at for implementing such a simple extra filter.
Stepping outside the top 3, in my opinion, is just fool’s gold, where what may seem like value isn’t, as form lines cannot be taken strictly on their merits.
Most weekdays there is far less quality racing around where the mind is concentrated on one or two principle races, and where we then look for the strongest bets.
That’s just my take on it and I would be very interested to hear your views and experiences on Saturday and bank holiday betting.
In short, do you find on these days what starts out to be a day full of optimism turns out to be a damp squib!?
It may well pay to analyse your own betting records to see what leaving out Saturday betting would do to your annual returns.
If you don’t keep records, then from memory have you walked away a happy bunny?
At the very least it’s worth an experiment to see how your profit/loss account is affected once you take out the low grade races. I wager you may be surprised!
Tennis – More fiddles than an orchestra?
Match rigging in tennis – surely not, he said sarcastically! When I was younger I used to pretend to play the guitar using a tennis racket, but never used it to play the fiddle!
No doubt you will have heard in the news of the latest match rigging allegations against certain tennis players? (Allegedly.)
The truth as I see it is, you are going to get odd results in all betting markets: that’s just the nature of the beast, I’m afraid.
Whether it be a player or team performing below par, or something more sinister going on, these stories are going to continue for as long as the sport is in existence.
We as punters have to account for this in any system or method we deploy. In other words, factor in plenty of room for error to account for such anomalies, so it does not matter to our long-term results.
Now if match rigging was prevalent, then we would be in trouble if we use bare form to arrive at our selections.
However, as match rigging is most certainly the exception and not the norm, a good system or strategy should easily accommodate for such irregularities happening from time to time.
In forthcoming newsletters I will look at a few tennis strategies that give plenty of coverage on most of the outcomes in a tennis match, where even if there is something untoward going on, it just wont matter!
Football Advisor – Week 7 Profit/Loss…
A better week last week with +11.38 points profit to reduce the overall trial deficit. Still hoping for one of the accas to come in!
Start your seven-day free trial here.
Tuesday 12th Janaury
2 Pt Bets
Lay 0v0 Half Time Score at 2.90 (To Win 2 Pts) (Newcastle – Man Utd) – Won +2.0
1 Pt Bets
Newcastle +0.5 at 2.1 – Won +1.10
Real Betis +1.5 at 1.88 – Lost -1.00
0.5 Pt Bets
Newcastle win at 4.80 – Lost -0.50
Real Betis win at 9.5 – Lost -0.50
Wednesday 13th January
3 Pt Bets
Sunderland +0.5 at 2.10 – Won +3.30
2 Pt Bets
Stoke win at 2.00 – Won +2.00
1.5 Pt Bets
Sunderland win at 5.50 – Won +6.75
1 Pt Bets
Chelsea Win To Nil at 2.05 – Lost -1.00
Man City Win HT / FT at 2.20 – Lost -1.00
Draw at 3.50 (Liverpool–Arsenal) – Won +2.50
0.5 Pt Bets
Sunderland -1.5 at 14 – Won +7.00
Accumulators
0.5 pt Sunderland (5.5), Stoke (2.0), Chelsea (1.36), Southampton (1.91), Man City (1.44) at 41.15 – Lost -0.50
1 pt Sunderland (5.5), Stoke (2.0), Chelsea (1.36) at 14.96 – Lost -1.00
0.50 Pt Sunderland (5.5), AC Milan (1.44), Man City (1.53), Chelsea (1.44), Barcelona (1.33) at 21.94 – Lost 0.50
1.5 pts AC Milan (1.44), Man City (1.53), Chelsea (1.44), Barcelona (1.33) at 4.22 – Lost -1.50
Saturday 16th January
2 Pt Bets
Man City -1.5 at 2.05 – Won +2.10
Inter win at 2.05 – Lost -2.00
Middlesbrough win at 1.95 – Lost -2.00
1.5 Pt Bets
QPR win at 2.70 – Won +2.55
1 Pt Bets
Sunderland +1.25 at 2.08 – Lost -1.00
Defoe at 4.5 – Lost -1.00
Everton +0.5 at 2.08 – Won +1.08
Inter -1.5 at 3.70 – Lost -1.00
Newcastle win at 2.50 – Won +1.50
Aston Villa win at 3.50 – Lost -1.00
BTTS–Yes and Middlesbrough win at 4.50 – Lost -1.00
Blackburn win at 2.40 – Lost -1.00
Nottingham Forest -1 at 2.40 – Won +1.40
QPR -1.5 at 5.75 – Won +4.75
0.5 Pt Bets
Sunderland win at 10 – Lost -0.50
Sunderland Win To Nil at 15 – Lost -0.50
BTTS – Yes and Leicester Win at 4.7 – Lost -0.50
BTTS – Yes and Aston Villa Win at 7.0 – Lost -0.50
Newcastle -1.5 at 5.25 – Lost -0.50
Accumulators
1 pt Inter (2.10), Boro (1.95), Man City (1.40) at 5.73 – Lost -1.00
Sunday 17th January
3 Pt Bets
Roma -1.5 at 2.05 – Lost -3.00
Valencia win at 1.57 – Lost -3.00
2 Pt Bets
Arsenal win at 1.95 – Lost -2.00
1.5 Pt Bets
Ajax win at 1.67 – Won +1.00
Valencia -1.25 at 2.25 – Lost -1.50
1 Pt Bets
Arsenal -1.5 at 3.75 – Lost -1.00
Marseille win at 2.50 – Won +1.50
0.5 Pt Bets
Draw at 3.30 – Lost -0.50
Accumulators
1pt Roma -1 (1.52), Valencia (1.55), Arsenal (2.00), Besiktas (1.22) at 5.75 – Lost -1.00
3pts Roma -1 (1.52), Valencia (1.55), Besiktas (1.22) at 2.91 – Lost -3.00
Monday 18th January
3 Pt Bets
Fenerbahce -1 at 1.90 – Won +2.70
Blackburn win at 1.75 – Won +2.25
1 Pt Bets
Draw at 3.30 – Lost -1.00
Accumulators
2pts Blackburn (1.50), Fenerbahce (1.80) at 2.70 – Won +3.40
0.5 pts Blackburn (1.50), Fenerbahce (1.80), Draw (Swansea 3.30) at 8.64 – Lost -0.50
Weekly P/L Summary:
Bets: 51
Wins: 18
Strike-rate: 35.29%
Weekly P/L = +11.38
Overall Trial P/L = -16.23
Until next time.
Fenerbahce -1 at 1.90 – Won +2.70
Blackburn win at 1.75 – Won +2.25
1 Pt Bets
Draw at 3.30 – Lost -1.00
Accumulators
2pts Blackburn (1.50), Fenerbahce (1.80) at 2.70 – Won +3.40
0.5 pts Blackburn (1.50), Fenerbahce (1.80), Draw (Swansea 3.30) at 8.64 – Lost -0.50
Weekly P/L Summary:
Bets: 51
Wins: 18
Strike-rate: 35.29%
Weekly P/L = +11.38
Overall Trial P/L = -16.23
Until next time.