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PLUS: Football Advisor – final review and verdict

A bit of general chit-chat this week, to bring some light relief from the world of stats and staking plans.

First up, an interesting radio interview on BBC Radio 5 Live with former champion Jump jockey Richard Dunwoody got me thinking about those that put their health, and indeed life, in the firing line daily for the sports that many of us enjoy.

Richard Dunwoody, who won just shy of 1700 races in his career including the Grand National, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and the King George, along with many others, told listeners he’s been suffering from memory loss that he puts down to his 700 falls.

The three-times-champion jockey (who I was privileged to meet a few times) believes it’s the effects of being concussed 7 or 8 times during those 700 falls that has brought about this memory loss.

There is no doubt National Hunt racing is a dangerous sport, with jockeys for this type of racing being paid a fraction in comparison to their Flat jockey counterparts.

Doesn’t seem right somehow, considering most Jump jockeys have broken nearly every bone in their body over the course of their time in the saddle.

Maybe if the oil-rich sheiks had the same appetite for Jump racing as they do for Flat racing the reverse would be true. Then again, they are only interested in thoroughbreds.

A message from above?

One night whilst looking up at the stars I noticed something very strange… All of a sudden, the group of stars know as the seven sisters, and another group called the big bear, and a few others grouped together in synchronised fashion slowly formed a sentence. It read: ‘Villa will stay up, back them now!’

Then low and behold the stars formed another sentence: ‘Back Road to Riches for the Cheltenham Gold Cup!’

Now I was starting to get really excited, thinking about how I could utilise this gift from the cosmos. Imagine backing both tip offs in a Win double – can you imagine the payout!?

Then just like a scene from Groundhog Day , my 20 year old Sanyo LED alarm clock blared to the tune of Hotel California. Quick tip! Never set your alarm clock to go off on the hour, as you will be awoken to more bad news about the world – not good to start the day off!

Yes you guessed it: it was all a magnificent dream and a nice one at that. This dream got me thinking about the unscientific side of betting – for example, hunch betting: when you have a strong feeling about a certain selection and you don’t know why, then ignore the feeling anyway in favour of a more rational approach.

No doubt many of you have had strong hunches that on the face of it defy all form and logic, so for one month I decided to note them down to see that if I had backed them, would I be in profit or loss?

These hunches would come for both football and horses – the sports I bet on most. Surprisingly, if following with real money I would have bet 14 selections with 6 winners and a profit of 23 points. Not bad eh? Of course, the sceptic in me just put this down to a series of good luck, unless the parapsychologist can convince me otherwise.

Maybe subconsciously I noted the team or horse in my memory bank as ones to watch next time out, and when they appeared again I would get the strong feeling or hunch to back it. That could be one explanation, but who knows how the mind works? It maybe worth you noting these strong hunches when you get them to see whether you’d have been in profit or loss – It may surprise you!

Dream your way to profit…

Now going back to dreams for a minute. Many years back than I care to remember, I was treated to tickets to watch Aston Villa vs Derby for a friend’s stag do.

I had a dream that night that villa won 2-1. I shared this with everyone before the game, and some backed the 2-1 Correct Score, including myself.

Villa went 1-0 down and it stayed that way until half time, so not looking good with looks of disappointment on my friends’ faces. Then the magic started to happen, with Villa equalising, before going on to win 2-1! Needless to say, I never had to buy a drink all night.

Another dream that some might call frightening was about Alex Ferguson. (Or should I say Sir Alex Ferguson?) I was in deep conversation with him at some racecourse. Now I could fully understand having this dream if I was thinking or reading about him the night before, but I wasn’t, so God knows where the minds gets its topics for dreams?

Do dreams leave us some type of cryptic clues to a future event that we are left to decipher?  

Well, as a bit of fun, I decided to look for any connection to Alex Ferguson the next day in the sporting arena that I could bet on. That can only mean one area – horse racing. Alex owns a good few horses and, surprise, surprise, I found one of his horses running in the 4.20 Goodwood – ‘Hairdryer’ (for obvious reasons). I decided to have a nice bet on at 3/1 and guess what? It never even got placed! So bang goes my theory on dreams leaving clues – or does it?  

Alex Ferguson happened to have two runners that day: the other that I completely missed was Red Pike running at Doncaster, who won at 8/1!  

To say I was gutted was an understatement, especially missing it from my own lack of attention to detail. So my dream did point me in the right direction, but it was up to me to work out the rest and do some work my end.

Of course, the above TRUE stories could and probably are just a massive coincidence. Although there are those that believe that dreams can be fine-tuned and used to predict the future if interpreted correctly. I for one keep an open mind on everything, as you never know!

My take on it is this: if the above were true, then why aren’t our dreams more precise instead of dropping vague or cryptic clues? Why don’t they give us the damn name of the team or horse that wins? I suppose it would all be too easy then!

Football Advisor – End-of-trial verdict

A disappointing end to the 9-week trial with a service I had high hopes for, and indeed still do.

Why? Well the service has made £5,372 since inception, and that’s not to be sniffed at from football betting.

I have every reason to believe these figures, simply because every bet during the trial, whether good or bad, has been recorded on a spreadsheet on the Football Advisor site.

The results for our review, however, have ended in -31.27 points.

Here are the figures for the 9-week trial…

Selections: 284
Wins: 95
Strike rate: 33.45%

Bet type:

Most are Win bets that range from 0.50 to 3 points. You do get the occasional lay bet and Jon (the author) also advises accumulators on certain days.

Customer service:

All emails were answered within 24 to 36 hours, so no problems there.

Delivery of service:

Delivery of the service is very good, with an email notification arriving on days on which there are selections at around 11.00 a.m. You then log in to receive the bets in the members area.

The loss is obviously disappointing and the absence of a nicely priced accumulator landing hasn’t helped, as they came close on more than one occasion.

Now these accumulators are normally made up of short-priced selections that when grouped can give some decent odds overall. Looking back at their results since inception here, they have landed many good-priced accumulators. No doubt with a few of these coming in over the 9-week trial matters could have looked very different.

Having said the above, the facts are we have witnessed first-hand a -31.27 point loss in the 9 weeks of this trial.

The verdict:
I can’t really fail a service that has made £5,327 to £10 per point stakes since inception on 1 June 2014. Therefore I will place Football Advisor in the Neutral category for now and keep a watchful eye on its progress.

Ironically now is maybe a good time to take up the seven-day free trial as it’s certainly due an up-turn sometime soon, and the next 7 days won’t cost you a penny.

Start your seven-day free trial here.

Next week – A nice angle for tennis betting that I don’t want you to miss out on, and new trial details…
Until next time, sleep well!