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PLUS: Cheltenham 2016 – ante-post bet for YOU!

Back to basics for this week’s newsletter: it seems this may be a point that needs re-enforcing as we approach the second month of 2016.

If you are serious about making your betting pay, you really can’t let another year go by if you’re not seeing progress in the right direction.

More than ever before there is a wealth of good advice out there, and despite popular belief, plenty of good methods and services can do all the work for you.

Yet despite this, why do some still fail? You could have two people following the very same service and one could profit and the other could lose…

The more I listen to those wishing to make their betting/trading pay, the more I realise there is a handful of fundamental problems holding them back in finally realising their dream of making it pay long-term.

Below are a some guidelines that are easy to follow and will steer you firmly in the right direction:

  • Follow a long-established service/method with a history of profitable results.
  • Have the recommended betting bank in place, and even a bit extra if you can.
  • Start with small stakes or stakes you’re comfortable with.
  • Try your hardest to get best price on all selections.
  • Place your bets in robot-like fashion through thick and thin.
  • Keep notes and monitor monthly.
  • Collect profits!

It really couldn’t be easier, however, why do some still fail? The answer is more simple than you think…

It centres around two key points:

1. Staking too high

Yes, most of us expect to hit the ground running when joining a service or following a method.

This rarely happens, as many of you will have experienced. Therefore staking too high from inception is what stops most from succeeding: simple as that!

If they don’t start with a couple of winners, they reflect on how much they’ve lost and quickly lose confidence. They see betting as a route to instant riches – which it is NOT and never has been, even for the most successful gamblers of years gone by.

Solution – If you really want to start building a nice nest-egg for the future, then strongly consider starting any method or service on the lowest possible stake.

In Betfair’s case, £2.00 is minimum. From a psychological viewpoint, this will help you enormously in the early part of your bank-building. What you have to do is start with stakes so low that even a lengthy losing spell won’t impact on your confidence.

Then when you see an up-turn, you will have confidence to up your stakes on-going. Believe me, this is the only way forward.

2. Not having a real betting bank in place…

Reading between the lines, it’s clear many don’t even have a betting bank in place, even when strictly advised to do so in the rules.

This is absolutely crazy and will only lead to massive failure. If a service or method advises a 100-point bank, they do so for a very good reason. Put simply, the 100-point bank is there to handle and short-term drawdowns. So for a 100-point bank and using Betfair’s minimum you would set aside £200 solely for betting purposes.

Trust me: if you adhere to the above two simple rules, you will build profits quicker than starting with bigger stakes that you are uncomfortable with.

Remember this game is about keeping your confidence as high as possible, thus starting with the small stakes, or an amount that wont hurt you if all fails, will help you carry on through thick and thin.

You will then get to a point where you will be betting with profits and can up your stakes, which will increase your confidence even more. So the advice is stake less to win more!

Ante-post bet for the JLT Novice Chase Cheltenham 2016

Rather than going for an each-way bet one selection, which is my norm, for this event I’m going to Dutch two selections that I’m confident will be fighting it out at the business end of the race.

My first is for KILLULTAGH VIC, who took a Novice race in spectacular fashion – after sprawling upon landing after jumping the last, he then looked certain to lose the race until this happened:

This is a remarkable horse, who in my opinion will improve further and will peak in March, so we have to be on. His trainer Willie Mullins tweeted the horse came out of his last race soundly, despite his mishap on the last fence.

My second selection in the race is his closet danger to the favourite above: SHANESHILL.

Shaneshill justified 4-7 favouritism when overcoming a mistake at the second-last fence to maintain his unbeaten run over fences at Naas on 3 January. He jumped well that day and jumped well under a pressure: a quality that’s very much needed at Cheltenham. His speed could pose a danger to the favourite if jumping well, so here’s what I’m going to do…

Killultagh Vic: 1.5 pts to win – 3/1 generally
Shaneshill: 0.5pts to win – 5/1 generally
Total wagered: 2 points

Football Advisor – Week 8 profit/loss…

A slight loss of -3.83 last week, but I missed Saturday’s selections (again) and the site has not been updated as yet with latest results. So will include them next week.

Next week will also be the final week for the trial, so let’s see can we hit one of them nice juicy accumulators!

Start your seven-day free trial here.

Tuesday 19 January

3 Pts Bets
Aston Villa -1 at 1.70 – Won +2.10

1.5 Pt Bets
Ipswich win at 2.45 – Lost -1.50
Bolton win at 1.80 – Won +1.20
1 Pt Bets
Aston Villa win-to-nil at 2.00 – Won +1.00
Inter +0.5 at 2.24 – Won +1.24

0.5 Pt Bets
Ipswich -1.5 at 6.00 – Lost -0.50
1 Pt Ipswich (3.00), Aston Villa (1.36), Liverpool (1.25) at 5.10 – Lost -1.00

Wednesday 20 January

3 Pt Bets
Liverpool -1.5 at 1.77 – Won +2.31

2 Pt Bets
Barcelona win at 1.80 – Won +1.60

1.5 Pt Bets
Liverpool Win To Nil at 2.10 – Won +1.65
1 Pt Bets
Juventus win at 2.15 – Won +1.15

0.5 Pt Bets
Barcelona -1.5 at 3.1 – Lost -0.50
0.5 Pts Barcelona (1.80), Liverpool (1.3), Juventus (2.20) at 5.23 – Won +2.61

1 Pt Barcelona (1.80), Liverpool -1.5 (1.77) at 3.31 – Won +2.31
Friday 22 January (includes early advised bets for Sat/Sun)

3 Pt Bets
Everton win at 1.70 – Lost -3.00

1.5 Pt Bets
Sunderland win at 3.10 – Lost -1.50
1 Pt Bets
Everton -1.25 at 2.50 – Lost -1.00

0.5 Pt Bets
Hamburg +1 at 3.80 – Lost -0.50
Hamburg win at 13.0 – Lost -0.50
Sunderland -1.5 at 6.6 – Lost -0.50

Saturday 23 January

Will update next week.

Sunday 24 January

3 Pt Bets
Real Madrid -1.5 at 1.80 – Lost -3.00

2 Pt Bets
Inter -1.5 at 2.06 – Lost -2.00
Roma +0.50 at 2.35 – Lost -2.00

1 Pt Bets
Sampdoria +1 at 2.08 – Lost -1.00
Valencia win at 3.40 – Lost -1.00

0.5 Pt Bets
Roma win a 6.00 – Lost -0.50
2v2 at 17.00 – Lost -0.50
Sampdoria win a 7.0 – Lost -0.50

Weekly P/L Summary
Bets: 28
Wins: 10
Strike-rate: 35.71%
Weekly P/L = -3.83
Overall Trial P/L = -20.06

Until next time!