First off, I’m glad to hear many of you made some nice profits with my angle for the EU referendum markets.
To recap the strategy: we Back/Lay repeatedly in the months prior to the vote and take advantage of the many price fluctuations that occur. This was made possible by keeping our ear to the ground, gauging public sentiment on the numerous opinion polls at certain points.
There was certainly plenty of swings from side to side that enabled many to Cash Out for a guaranteed profit across both outcomes a week before the vote… and these long-term markets are ripe for profiting in the same way. Next up is the US Presidential election with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump…
On the result, I never quite saw that coming – and clearly neither did the betting markets.
Even Boris and pals looked shocked to have won, judging by their gaunt looks after the win, like rabbits in the headlights. Maybe he was upset by being outmaneuvered by David Cameron’s resigning, leaving it up to the next Tory leader and PM to sign the Brexit papers we now all know as Article 50…?
The price to Remain actually went as low as 1.09 for a period before it bounced back up to around 1.50… until the full results started to roll in.
It goes to show nothing – I repeat, nothing – is certain when it comes to betting markets and where forecasting is concerned.
Euro selections update
Reviewing my two Euro 2016 value selections, Austria were a poor pick and went by the wayside in dire fashion. I couldn’t resist the 40/1 on offer and was banking on them to at least progress through to the knockout stages.
Poland, my other pick, at 50/1 are progressing well. They are now down to around 20 (19/1) on Betfair after qualifying into the last eight. The option to Lay off lower was there after the group stages for those who wanted to Cash Out early, whether in part of full.
For those who are still in, my advice would be to Back Portugal (Poland’s next opponents on Thursday) to Qualify at 1.65 to cover stakes.
Leave the Poland bet in the outright win market to run, if you haven’t cashed out already.
Low risk tennis angle and Wimbledon
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Enjoy the sporting feast that we have before us and I will be back next week.