I hate to say I told you so but I will – told you so!
Last week I advised you on what to consider if you want to profit from Punchestown and I hope you followed my advice!
It’s not the first time a shed load of short priced fav’s have been sunk at Punchestown, and although you won’t make massive profits it just shows what can be done from such a simple set of rules.
My theory is that this particular festival comes very late in the National Hunt season where many of those entered have already had long campaigns running at Cheltenham and Aintree and it leaves me truly baffled why punters take the plunge time and time again. Let’s look at what happened with selections at 6/4 or below.
Here’s the results;
Melon – 2nd 5/4f +0.95
Un Des Sceux – 2nd 10/11f +0.95
Battleford – 2nd 6/4f +0.95
Sizing John – Won 10/11f – Lost -0.91
Fayonagh – Won 11/8f – Lost -1.37
Cantlow – 2nd 8/11f – +0.95
Next Destination – 2nd 4/5f +0.95
Vroum Vroum Mag – Lost 6/4f +0.95
Apples Jade – WON – 1/1 – -1.00
Scores on the doors…
66.66% Winning Lay Strike rate
Now group around 3 or 4 of such strategies together and you will have a nice low risk portfolio and plenty of daily action to boot!
It’s unique approaches like the above I like to take with many of my betting strategies in order to gain the edge and get value. So instead of following the herd and backing the short priced favourites based on past form we sometimes have to take on board other factors to gain our edge.
Betting/trading is a fluid environment and as such we really do have to keep looking for that extra angle that can be the difference between profit and loss. I also bring into the equation the psychological aspect when evaluating my bets, especially in teams and individual players sports.
These are the sort of edges I focus on in my Quick Fire Betting course and where looking at your betting through a different pair of glasses can help keep you ahead of the game.
Testing Pod Updates….
The Racing Informer:
Still treading water at the moment and still in profit (just) which is good enough for me when not hitting the winners. So just waiting for a burst of life from this one.
See how it performed lat week
Against The Double (Lay Strategy):
As I write we broke the +10 point profit (again) lets hope we can kick on!
Seeing as the longest back to back losing run is 2 days I think this method could certainly benefit from some gradual recovery staking system.
Have a look here and see what you think?
That’s all for now and see you next week!